Tuesday - 5 June 2012
Population projection 2012-2060
Statistics Iceland has revised the population projection from 2010 for the years 2012–2061. The population is projected to be 436 thousand by the end of the period. The low variant projects that the number of inhabitants will be 393 thousand while the high variant projects the population to 498 thousand.
The age structure of the population will change in the projection period. The number of inhabitants aged 65 years old and over will increase proportionally more than the working age population while the number of young people will decrease. The graph below shows the age structure according to the medium variant.
In all variants, net migration is projected to be positive in the long run. The positive net migration is due to foreign immigrants, but the number of Icelandic citizens who emigrate is assumed to be higher than the number of citizens who return. The net migration prediction for 2012-2016 is based on dynamical models which take into account the latest economic forecast of Statistics Iceland.. Figure 3 shows the projection with estimated confidence limits.