A new issue of Statistical Series, presenting an economic forecast for 2022–2027, is now available.

GDP grew by 4.3% in 2021, mainly driven by growth in private consumption and investment. Uncertainty due to the pandemic has diminished, but this is offset by increased uncertainty over Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the consequences of the war for the world economy. The economy is expected to grow by 4.6% this year and 2.7% in 2023.

Private consumption is forecast to increase by 4.2% this year and 3.4% in 2023. Public consumption growth is expected to continue to decline this year, to 1.1% and 1.5% next year. Investment growth is expected to be 5% this year, but it will slow down in 2023, partly due to lower investment in ships and aircrafts. Exports are expected to grow by 16% this year and 5.8% next year, mainly driven by a recovering tourist sector. Imports are expected to increase by 12.4% this year and 4.9% next year, partly due to higher tourist spending abroad.

The inflation outlook has deteriorated significantly. Rising house prices have been persistent, commodity prices have risen sharply due to the conflict in Ukraine and uncertainty about price developments abroad has increased. Inflation is expected to average 5.9% this year and fall to 3.5% on average in 2023. The labour market was strong at the beginning of the year and unemployment is estimated to average 4.3% this year. Real wages increased by 3.7% last year, but are expected to increase by 1% this year because of rising inflation. There is uncertainty about wage developments thereafter as collective wage agreements in the private sector expire this year.

The last economic forecast was published on the 30th of November 2021. The next forecast is scheduled for June 2022.

Economic forecast — Statistical Series