A new issue of Statistical Series, presenting the economic forecast for 2016 -2022, is now available.

During 2016 the Icelandic economy is predicted to grow by 4.8%, private consumption by 7.1% and investment by 21.7%. In 2017 GDP growth is forecast at 4.4%, private consumption at 5.7% and investment at 7.4%. For the remaining years of the forecast period GDP is expected to grow between 2.6 and 3% per annum, private consumption between 2.5 to 3.7% while investment is expected to increase 1.4 to 4.2% yearly.

Consumption, investment and tourism growth is now thought to be greater than previously forecast. A current account surplus is expected for the entire period, but net export contributions to growth will negative during 2016 and 2017.

Strong exchange rate appreciation in recent months delays the expected pick-up of inflation.  Inflation is predicted to increase in 2017, peak in 2018 and subsequently decrease gradually.

Employment growth shows no signs of diminishing but its pace is expected to slow after 2017.  Wages and purchasing power have increased greatly in recent years and wage uncertainty is considered to be low for the next two years.

The last economic forecast was published on the 27th of May 2016.  The next forecast is scheduled for spring 2017.

Economic forecast, winter 2016 - Statistical Series