The population of Iceland is projected to grow from 394 thousand at the beginning of 2026 to 560 thousand in 2076. The population is projected to reach 500 thousand in 25 years. The projections indicate an 80% probability that the population will be between 400 and 770 thousand in 2076.
According to the population projection the following changes in population structure are predicted:
- The share of the working age population (16 to 74 years old) will decrease from 74% in 2025 to 67% in 2076. There is an 80% probability that this share will be between 58% and 71% in 2076.
- Before 2046, people aged over 65 will outnumber those aged under 20.
- The median age of the population will rise from 37 years in 2026 to 50 years in 2076. There is an 80% probability that the median age will be between 44 and 59 years in 2076.
Three projections variants are published: a baseline, a low variant and a high variant. They are based on different assumptions about fertility and migration.
Under the high variant, Iceland’s population could reach 800 thousand in 2076. This variant assumes fertility that is 10% higher, immigration that is 5% higher and emigration that is 5% lower than the baseline.
Under the low variant, the population could be 390 thousand in 2076. However, the population is projected to grow initially to around 416 thousand in 2046 before declining. This variant assumes fertility that is 10% lower, immigration that is 5% lower and emigration that is 5% higher than the baseline.
The population baseline projection uses statistical models of fertility, mortality and migration. Their outputs are combined to project the total population using established statistical and demographic methods. The projections do not account for the effects of potential shocks caused by natural, social or economic factors.
Over the next ten years, the total fertility rate could fall to a median of 1.4 children per woman, with an 80% probability of being between 1.3 and 1.5. The baseline projection nevertheless indicates a fertility rate of 1.6 children per woman in 2076. Under the low variant, the rate is projected to be 1.4 in 2076, similar to the European Union average in 2022.
Under the baseline projection, life expectancy at birth will grow from 84 years in 2025 to 92 years in 2076 for women, and from 81 to 87 years for men. Immigration is projected to exceed emigration throughout the projected period. Annual net migration over the next 50 years is projected to average 3,100 under the baseline, compared to 860 under the low variant and 6,500 under the high variant.
Population ageing is caused by decreasing fertility and increased life expectancy. This process is nevertheless slower in Iceland than in the EU countries, due to high migration at young ages and to relatively high fertility compared with the EU average. The median age in the EU countries was 44 years in 2021. In Iceland, this median age is not projected to be reached until 2046 under the median projection, compared with 2066 under the variant with the highest migration and 2036 under the variant with the lowest migration.