The population of Iceland is projected to grow from 389 (estimated resident population 1 January 2025) to an estimated value between 450 and 700 thousand in the next 50 years, depending on migration flows, according to Statistics Iceland’s population projection. The most likely population value in 2075 is 550 thousand and Iceland could reach 500 thousand people in 16 years-time. The highest projection variant shows that Iceland would reach 500 thousand people much earlier, in 2037.
According to the population projection the following changes in population structure are predicted:
- The proportion of the working age population (defined as 16 to 74 years old) will decrease from 74% in 2025 to 70% in 2075, according to the median projections
- After 2052, the older age population (over 65 years) will become more numerous than the youngest (less than 20 years old), according to the median projections
- The median age of the Icelandic population was 37 years in 2025 and is predicted to be 52 years in 2075 according to the central projection variant. The variant corresponding to the highest migration schedule predicts a much younger median age, i.e. 48 in 2075 while the variant corresponding to lowest migration schedule predicts an older 53 as median age in 2075
The total fertility rate should reach 1.4 children per woman (of 13-55 years of age) in 2075, according to the median projection. Total fertility rate could have values between 1.3 and 1.5, with 90% probability, in 2075. The median predicted rate (1.4) for Iceland in 2075 is yet higher than the average EU total fertility rate of 1.4 which was reached in 2022. Life expectancy at birth will grow from 84 years in 2024 to 89 years in 2075 for women and from 81 to 84 years for men, according to the median projection.
Population ageing is caused by decreasing fertility and increased life expectancy. However, this development is still slower in Iceland than in the EU countries, due to high migration at young ages and to relatively high fertility compared with the EU average. The median age in the EU countries was 44 years in 2021, while this value will be reached in Iceland only in 2050, according to the median projection, in 2052 according to the highest migration variant and in 2047 according to the lowest migration variant.
About the data
The current projection provides conditional forecasts or variants (and associated uncertainty), based on five different migration scenarios. These scenarios are defined by prior constraints on the net migration median values. As a result, these values lie between one and seven thousand individuals each year but follow different trends. The 50-year time average of each net migration variant can be as low as two and as high as five thousand individuals.
The population projection is based on statistical models of fertility, mortality and migration whose predictions are combined into total population predictions, according to standard statistical and demographical methods. The results of the population projection consist of predicted values as well as their associated uncertainty measure, but it does not include any effects due to possible crises caused by natural, social or economic factors. The models allow the inclusion of prior expert information and the production of conditional forecasts.